What is the likehood of a gaol sentence for ault occasioning bodily harm ?

Situation as follows: man pushes woman, woman gets slight graze on shoulder from a carpet burn as a result of pushing to the ground. Man is charged with ault occasioning actual bodily harm. Bail is refused as he had a prearrange holiday booked overseas. After 5 weeks in remand he will go to court. He has pled Guilty. What is the chance that he will serve time in gaol for this? I know the maximum in local court is 2 years gaol. but surely pushing someone and giving them a carpet burn wouldnt result in more gaol? please help